Waalwijk vs Dordrecht
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-14 · 20:00 CET
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WDLLLThe score model made a Waalwijk win the most likely outcome at 50%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Waalwijk 1.82 – 1.29 Dordrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk win | 50.2% | 50.6% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 24.9% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Dordrecht win | 27.2% | 24.5% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 57.4% | +2.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% | 36.8% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | 59.0% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.3% | 39.7% | -1.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Waalwijk 27.8 / Dordrecht 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.