NAC Breda vs Venlo
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-14 · 20:00 CET
WLWDL
LWWWLThe score model made an NAC Breda win the most likely outcome at 56%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: NAC Breda 1.97 – 1.17 Venlo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 56.1% | 66.1% | -9.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.5% | 18.8% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Venlo win | 22.4% | 15.1% | +7.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | 68.5% | -7.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.3% | 48.5% | -10.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | 60.8% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.0% | 47.6% | -16.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: NAC Breda 10.2 / Venlo 46.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.