Eindhoven FC vs Maastricht
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-14 · 20:00 CET
WLLLD
WWWWDThe score model made an Eindhoven FC win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eindhoven FC 1.73 – 1.25 Maastricht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eindhoven FC win | 48.7% | 47.7% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.4% | 25.5% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Maastricht win | 27.9% | 26.8% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.2% | 58.6% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.8% | 38.1% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | 60.5% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 40.4% | -3.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Eindhoven FC 46.9 / Maastricht 47 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.