Jong AZ vs Eindhoven FC
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-10 · 20:00 CET
WLLWW
WLLLDThe score model made a Jong AZ win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 68%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jong AZ 2.05 – 1.46 Eindhoven FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong AZ win | 51.3% | 44.7% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.2% | 24.3% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Eindhoven FC win | 27.5% | 31.1% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.1% | 64.9% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.6% | 44.3% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 66.9% | 65.8% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.1% | 44.6% | -1.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jong AZ 46.4 / Eindhoven FC 46.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.