Maastricht vs Jong Utrecht
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-09 · 16:45 CET
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LLLLDThe score model made a Maastricht win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Maastricht 1.64 – 1.22 Jong Utrecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maastricht win | 47.3% | 37.7% | +9.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 25.9% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Jong Utrecht win | 28.6% | 36.5% | -7.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | 59.6% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.3% | 38.6% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | 62.9% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 40.7% | -6.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Maastricht 46.4 / Jong Utrecht 46.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.