Helmond vs De Graafschap
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-09 · 12:15 CET
DLDLW
DLLLLThe score model made a De Graafschap win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Helmond 1.27 – 1.68 De Graafschap.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helmond win | 29.1% | 28.7% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 27.1% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| De Graafschap win | 47.2% | 44.2% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.6% | 58.9% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.2% | 38.8% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.4% | 62.8% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.7% | 40.7% | -4.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Helmond 46.4 / De Graafschap 48.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.