FC Emmen vs Roda
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-07 · 20:00 CET
WWWLW
LWWDDThe score model made an FC Emmen win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Emmen 1.49 – 1.44 Roda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Emmen win | 38.8% | 39.4% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 25.1% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Roda win | 36.8% | 35.5% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 61.9% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.8% | 41.3% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | 64.4% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.0% | 42.6% | -0.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Emmen 43.7 / Roda 47.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.