Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax
Eerste Divisie, Netherlands · 2026-08-07 · 20:00 CET
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LLWDWThe score model made a Dordrecht win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dordrecht 1.84 – 1.04 Jong Ajax.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht win | 56.2% | 60.5% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.5% | 20.8% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Jong Ajax win | 21.3% | 18.7% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 65.0% | -10.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 44.4% | -11.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | 60.7% | -6.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.7% | 44.8% | -11.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dordrecht 46.6 / Jong Ajax 46.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.