Hassania Agadir vs Berkane
Botola Pro, Morocco · 2026-11-06 · 18:00 CET
LWDDL
DDDDWThe score model makes a Berkane win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 47.6% vs 45.3% implied (+2.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hassania Agadir 0.92 – 1.45 Berkane.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hassania Agadir win | 22.3% | 21.5% | +0.8% |
| Draw | 29.8% | 28.6% | +1.2% |
| Berkane win | 47.9% | 49.8% | -1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.2% | 41.1% | +1.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.5% | 22.1% | -0.6% |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% | 45.3% | +2.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.1% | 29.1% | +1.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Hassania Agadir 40 / Berkane 39.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Hassania Agadir vs Berkane in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.