Union Touarga vs FUS Rabat
Botola Pro, Morocco · 2026-09-26 · 18:00 CET
LLDWW
LLWDLThe score model made an FUS Rabat win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Union Touarga 1.09 – 1.25 FUS Rabat.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Touarga win | 30.1% | 30.5% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.1% | 33.0% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| FUS Rabat win | 37.9% | 36.5% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.3% | 36.5% | +4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.7% | 19.2% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | 45.2% | +4.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 25.6% | +3.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Union Touarga 36.8 / FUS Rabat 36.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.