Transinvest vs Kauno Zalgiris
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-11-08 · 13:15 CET
WWDWL
LWWDWThe score model makes a Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 72.2% vs 66.0% implied (+6.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Transinvest 1.16 – 1.51 Kauno Zalgiris.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transinvest win | 28.1% | 26.4% | +1.7% |
| Draw | 27.6% | 25.6% | +2.1% |
| Kauno Zalgiris win | 44.3% | 48.0% | -3.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 54.2% | -4.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.8% | 34.0% | -6.2% |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | 57.2% | -2.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.3% | 37.8% | -2.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Transinvest 32.6 / Kauno Zalgiris 51 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Transinvest vs Kauno Zalgiris in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.