Suduva vs Dziugas Telsiai
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-11-08 · 13:15 CET
DDLLW
LLDWLThe score model makes a Suduva win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 53.4% vs 42.6% implied (+10.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Suduva 1.52 – 1.02 Dziugas Telsiai.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suduva win | 47.9% | 61.5% | -13.5% |
| Draw | 27.8% | 21.6% | +6.2% |
| Dziugas Telsiai win | 24.2% | 17.0% | +7.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | 57.4% | -10.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.1% | 35.9% | -10.8% |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 53.5% | -2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.5% | 40.4% | -9.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Suduva 50.8 / Dziugas Telsiai 50.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Suduva vs Dziugas Telsiai in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.