FK Panevezys vs FA Siauliai
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-11-08 · 13:15 CET
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LDLDWThe score model makes an FK Panevezys win the most likely outcome at 57%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.0% vs 61.2% implied (+8.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FK Panevezys 1.81 – 0.95 FA Siauliai.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Panevezys win | 56.9% | 54.5% | +2.4% |
| Draw | 24.7% | 23.5% | +1.2% |
| FA Siauliai win | 18.4% | 22.0% | -3.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 59.6% | -7.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.0% | 38.8% | -8.9% |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | 58.7% | -6.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.8% | 41.5% | -5.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: FK Panevezys 50.9 / FA Siauliai 25.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FK Panevezys vs FA Siauliai in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.