Banga vs Zalgiris
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-11-08 · 13:15 CET
LWLDL
WLWWDThe score model makes a Zalgiris win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 73.8% vs 65.5% implied (+8.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Banga 1.13 – 1.46 Zalgiris.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banga win | 28.4% | 30.5% | -2.1% |
| Draw | 28.2% | 25.7% | +2.5% |
| Zalgiris win | 43.4% | 43.8% | -0.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 55.8% | -7.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.2% | 34.5% | -8.3% |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 58.7% | -5.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.7% | 38.7% | -7.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Banga 50.7 / Zalgiris 51 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Banga vs Zalgiris in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.