Banga vs Suduva
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-08-09 · 15:45
The score model makes a Banga win the most likely outcome at 35%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 29%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Banga 0.98 – 0.90 Suduva.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banga win | 35.3% | 40.6% | -5.3% |
| Draw | 34.0% | 29.0% | +5.0% |
| Suduva win | 30.7% | 30.5% | +0.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29.0% | 44.5% | -15.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.1% | 25.1% | -12.9% |
| Both teams to score | 38.0% | 50.7% | -12.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 53.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.1% | 30.6% | -11.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Banga 49.9 / Suduva 49.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.