Banga vs Suduva
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-08-09 · 17:45 CET
DDLLW
WWLDDThe score model made a Banga win the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 29%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Banga 0.98 – 0.89 Suduva.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banga win | 35.4% | 36.5% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 33.9% | 30.4% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Suduva win | 30.6% | 33.1% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29.0% | 42.1% | -13.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.2% | 23.0% | -10.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 38.0% | 48.8% | -10.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 53.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.0% | 29.3% | -10.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Banga 49.8 / Suduva 48.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.