Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-08-08 · 16:00
The score model makes a Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kauno Zalgiris 1.89 – 0.93 Hegelmann.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kauno Zalgiris win | 59.1% | 66.1% | -7.0% |
| Draw | 23.6% | 20.3% | +3.2% |
| Hegelmann win | 17.4% | 13.6% | +3.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | 55.6% | -1.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.4% | 35.6% | -4.2% |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | 48.8% | +3.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kauno Zalgiris 49.4 / Hegelmann 51.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.