Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann
A Lyga, Lithuania · 2026-08-08 · 18:00 CET
DWWWL
LDDLDThe score model made a Kauno Zalgiris win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kauno Zalgiris 1.89 – 0.94 Hegelmann.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kauno Zalgiris win | 59.1% | 60.0% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 23.5% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Hegelmann win | 17.4% | 16.5% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 50.5% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | 30.8% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 48.1% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 34.7% | -0.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kauno Zalgiris 49.1 / Hegelmann 51 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.