Vissel Kobe vs Urawa Reds
J1 League, Japan · 2026-11-08 · 06:00 CET
LWLDW
LWWWLThe score model makes a Vissel Kobe win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Vissel Kobe win — 53.8% vs 46.2% implied (+7.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vissel Kobe 1.67 – 1.01 Urawa Reds.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vissel Kobe win | 53.8% | 46.2% | +7.6% |
| Draw | 22.3% | 26.1% | -3.8% |
| Urawa Reds win | 24.0% | 27.8% | -3.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | 52.9% | -2.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.2% | 33.8% | -5.6% |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 55.9% | -5.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.9% | 36.6% | -3.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Vissel Kobe 45.4 / Urawa Reds 46.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Vissel Kobe vs Urawa Reds in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.