Machida vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
J1 League, Japan · 2026-11-08 · 06:00 CET
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WWLWWThe score model makes a Machida win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Machida win — 39.3% vs 32.4% implied (+6.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Machida 1.31 – 1.24 Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Machida win | 39.3% | 32.4% | +6.8% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 27.6% | -2.9% |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima win | 36.1% | 40.0% | -3.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.8% | 52.3% | -5.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.2% | 31.5% | -6.3% |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 56.9% | -6.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.7% | 36.1% | -4.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Machida 40.5 / Sanfrecce Hiroshima 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Machida vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.