Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka
J1 League, Japan · 2026-11-08 · 07:00 CET
LDWDD
DLDDLThe score model makes a Gamba Osaka win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Gamba Osaka win — 46.2% vs 42.2% implied (+4.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gamba Osaka 1.61 – 1.27 Cerezo Osaka.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gamba Osaka win | 46.2% | 42.2% | +4.0% |
| Draw | 22.6% | 26.8% | -4.2% |
| Cerezo Osaka win | 31.2% | 31.0% | +0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | 55.1% | -0.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.6% | 35.0% | -2.3% |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 59.2% | -2.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 37.8% | -0.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Gamba Osaka 44 / Cerezo Osaka 44.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.