Chiba vs Mito
J1 League, Japan · 2026-11-08 · 09:00 CET
DDLDW
LLLLLThe score model makes a Chiba win the most likely outcome at 63%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Chiba win — 63.1% vs 45.4% implied (+17.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chiba 1.96 – 0.89 Mito.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiba win | 63.1% | 45.4% | +17.7% |
| Draw | 19.6% | 27.6% | -8.0% |
| Mito win | 17.3% | 27.0% | -9.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% | 48.8% | +5.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.9% | 28.7% | +3.1% |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 53.5% | -3.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.7% | 34.2% | +2.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Chiba 20.7 / Mito 17.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Chiba vs Mito in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.