Yokohama F. Marinos vs Okayama
J1 League, Japan · 2026-11-07 · 06:00 CET
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LLWLLThe score model makes a Yokohama F. Marinos win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Yokohama F. Marinos win — 51.9% vs 35.4% implied (+16.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Yokohama F. Marinos 1.64 – 1.07 Okayama.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yokohama F. Marinos win | 51.9% | 35.4% | +16.5% |
| Draw | 22.5% | 28.3% | -5.9% |
| Okayama win | 25.7% | 36.3% | -10.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 50.7% | +0.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.8% | 30.6% | -1.8% |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | 56.1% | -4.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.1% | 34.8% | +0.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Yokohama F. Marinos 46.4 / Okayama 33.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Yokohama F. Marinos vs Okayama in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.