Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto
J1 League, Japan · 2026-11-07 · 06:00 CET
LWWDD
WLLDDThe score model makes a Nagoya Grampus win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 67.1% vs 61.7% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nagoya Grampus 1.75 – 1.14 Kyoto.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus win | 52.6% | 51.8% | +0.8% |
| Draw | 21.6% | 24.5% | -2.9% |
| Kyoto win | 25.8% | 23.8% | +2.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | 57.5% | -2.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.9% | 38.3% | -5.4% |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 57.3% | -2.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.6% | 39.2% | -3.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Nagoya Grampus 44.5 / Kyoto 44.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.