Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale
J1 League, Japan · 2026-11-07 · 08:00 CET
WLDWW
DLWWWThe score model makes a Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Kashiwa Reysol win — 49.6% vs 42.6% implied (+7.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kashiwa Reysol 1.95 – 1.48 Kawasaki Frontale.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kashiwa Reysol win | 49.6% | 42.6% | +7.0% |
| Draw | 20.3% | 24.4% | -4.1% |
| Kawasaki Frontale win | 30.1% | 33.0% | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.6% | 63.2% | +3.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.8% | 44.4% | +0.5% |
| Both teams to score | 65.4% | 64.8% | +0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.6% | 44.2% | +1.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Kashiwa Reysol 48.1 / Kawasaki Frontale 45.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.