FC Tokyo vs Kashima Antlers
J1 League, Japan · 2026-11-07 · 07:00 CET
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WWDLWThe score model makes an FC Tokyo win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: FC Tokyo win — 53.8% vs 45.6% implied (+8.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Tokyo 1.78 – 1.12 Kashima Antlers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo win | 53.8% | 45.6% | +8.2% |
| Draw | 21.3% | 26.5% | -5.1% |
| Kashima Antlers win | 24.9% | 27.9% | -3.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | 55.0% | +0.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.1% | 34.7% | -1.6% |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | 58.5% | -3.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.1% | 37.6% | -2.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: FC Tokyo 45.5 / Kashima Antlers 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FC Tokyo vs Kashima Antlers in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.