Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki
J1 League, Japan · 2026-11-07 · 07:00 CET
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DDLWLThe score model makes an Avispa Fukuoka win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: V-Varen Nagasaki win — 37.0% vs 27.4% implied (+9.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Avispa Fukuoka 1.32 – 1.28 V-Varen Nagasaki.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka win | 38.9% | 45.1% | -6.2% |
| Draw | 24.1% | 27.6% | -3.5% |
| V-Varen Nagasaki win | 37.0% | 27.4% | +9.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.4% | 46.8% | +1.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.6% | 26.9% | -0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | 51.4% | +0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.0% | 32.1% | -2.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Avispa Fukuoka 43 / V-Varen Nagasaki 20.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.