Yokohama F. Marinos vs Mito
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-19 · 12:30 CET
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LLLLLThe score model made a Yokohama F. Marinos win the most likely outcome at 57%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Yokohama F. Marinos 2.12 – 1.31 Mito.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yokohama F. Marinos win | 57.2% | 46.2% | +11.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 18.6% | 26.6% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Mito win | 24.3% | 27.2% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.5% | 52.2% | +14.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.8% | 31.0% | +13.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | 56.0% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.0% | 35.6% | +5.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Yokohama F. Marinos 45.4 / Mito 12.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Yokohama F. Marinos vs Mito in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.