V-Varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-19 · 11:30 CET
WDDLW
LDDLDThe score model made a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: V-Varen Nagasaki 1.47 – 1.62 Cerezo Osaka.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V-Varen Nagasaki win | 36.2% | 28.1% | +8.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.2% | 27.0% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| Cerezo Osaka win | 42.6% | 44.9% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% | 53.4% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.2% | 33.2% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | 56.7% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.3% | 36.2% | +6.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: V-Varen Nagasaki 17.5 / Cerezo Osaka 42.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open V-Varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.