Okayama vs Kyoto
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-19 · 12:00 CET
WLLLW
WLLDDThe score model made an Okayama win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Okayama 1.29 – 1.20 Kyoto.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Okayama win | 40.0% | 51.4% | -11.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 26.6% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Kyoto win | 36.1% | 22.1% | +14.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 49.5% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.0% | 29.0% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 52.2% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 34.1% | -0.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Okayama 30.3 / Kyoto 43.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Okayama vs Kyoto in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.