Kawasaki Frontale vs Kashima Antlers
J1 League, Japan · 2026-09-19 · 11:00 CET
WDLWW
DWWDLThe score model made a Kashima Antlers win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 3:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kawasaki Frontale 1.37 – 1.70 Kashima Antlers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale win | 32.3% | 35.0% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.0% | 26.1% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Kashima Antlers win | 46.8% | 38.8% | +7.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | 58.0% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.9% | 37.2% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | 61.5% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.9% | 39.7% | +4.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kawasaki Frontale 44.9 / Kashima Antlers 43.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.