Machida vs Urawa Reds
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-23 · 12:30 CET
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LLWWWThe score model made a Machida win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Machida 1.46 – 0.93 Urawa Reds.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida win | 51.1% | 48.8% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 28.0% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Urawa Reds win | 25.9% | 23.2% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.9% | 44.1% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.0% | 24.3% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.9% | 48.5% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.3% | 30.0% | -2.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Machida 34.6 / Urawa Reds 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.