Yokohama F. Marinos vs Vissel Kobe
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-22 · 12:30 CET
WWLDW
DLWWWThe score model made a Vissel Kobe win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Yokohama F. Marinos 1.27 – 1.49 Vissel Kobe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yokohama F. Marinos win | 34.0% | 34.1% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.0% | 29.6% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Vissel Kobe win | 44.1% | 36.3% | +7.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 43.8% | +8.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 24.0% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | 50.8% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.5% | 30.1% | +0.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Yokohama F. Marinos 43.1 / Vissel Kobe 40.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.