Nagoya Grampus vs Gamba Osaka
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-22 · 12:00 CET
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DLDDLThe score model made a Nagoya Grampus win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nagoya Grampus 1.49 – 1.36 Gamba Osaka.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus win | 42.1% | 40.2% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.7% | 27.0% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Gamba Osaka win | 36.2% | 32.8% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | 53.2% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.8% | 32.6% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 57.4% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 35.6% | -1.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nagoya Grampus 40.7 / Gamba Osaka 39.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.