Kashima Antlers vs Avispa Fukuoka
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-22 · 11:00 CET
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WLLLDThe score model made a Kashima Antlers win the most likely outcome at 60%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kashima Antlers 1.44 – 0.59 Avispa Fukuoka.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima Antlers win | 59.5% | 53.3% | +6.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.7% | 27.8% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Avispa Fukuoka win | 16.7% | 18.9% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.2% | 40.5% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.9% | 21.7% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 32.5% | 43.9% | -11.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.7% | 28.0% | +3.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kashima Antlers 41.4 / Avispa Fukuoka 39.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.