Kashiwa Reysol vs V-Varen Nagasaki
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-21 · 12:00 CET
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LLLDLThe score model made a Kashiwa Reysol win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kashiwa Reysol 1.64 – 1.01 V-Varen Nagasaki.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashiwa Reysol win | 53.6% | 60.9% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.3% | 23.1% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| V-Varen Nagasaki win | 25.0% | 16.0% | +9.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | 53.2% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.6% | 32.7% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 50.7% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.3% | 36.2% | +2.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kashiwa Reysol 43.8 / V-Varen Nagasaki 13.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.