Vissel Kobe vs FC Tokyo
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-15 · 12:00 CET
DLWWW
DWWDWThe score model made a Vissel Kobe win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vissel Kobe 1.57 – 0.99 FC Tokyo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vissel Kobe win | 52.4% | 42.6% | +9.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.0% | 29.2% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| FC Tokyo win | 25.6% | 28.2% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% | 43.8% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% | 24.3% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 50.1% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.7% | 30.3% | -3.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vissel Kobe 40.3 / FC Tokyo 40.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.