Shimizu S-Pulse vs Yokohama F. Marinos
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-15 · 11:30 CET
LLLDL
WWLDWThe score model made a Shimizu S-Pulse win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Shimizu S-Pulse 1.41 – 1.35 Yokohama F. Marinos.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-Pulse win | 40.2% | 39.9% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.2% | 28.8% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Yokohama F. Marinos win | 37.6% | 31.2% | +6.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 47.6% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 27.4% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | 53.7% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.0% | 32.7% | -1.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Shimizu S-Pulse 25.2 / Yokohama F. Marinos 42.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.