Okayama vs V-Varen Nagasaki
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-15 · 11:55 CET
WDLWW
LLLDLThe score model made an Okayama win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Okayama 1.43 – 1.18 V-Varen Nagasaki.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Okayama win | 44.4% | 46.1% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 28.7% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| V-Varen Nagasaki win | 32.9% | 25.2% | +7.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 44.4% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% | 24.3% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 49.7% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.8% | 30.6% | +8.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Okayama 26.2 / V-Varen Nagasaki 12.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.