Kawasaki Frontale vs Kyoto
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-15 · 12:00 CET
DDWLW
DLWDLThe score model made a Kawasaki Frontale win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kawasaki Frontale 1.74 – 1.50 Kyoto.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki Frontale win | 44.9% | 42.9% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.3% | 27.6% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Kyoto win | 34.8% | 29.5% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.8% | 51.7% | +11.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.6% | 31.1% | +9.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | 56.5% | +6.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.0% | 35.1% | +7.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kawasaki Frontale 42.2 / Kyoto 40.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.