Verdy vs Kawasaki Frontale
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-09 · 11:00 CET
LDLLD
DDWLWThe score model made a Kawasaki Frontale win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Verdy 1.24 – 1.40 Kawasaki Frontale.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verdy win | 35.0% | 29.8% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.5% | 30.0% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| Kawasaki Frontale win | 42.5% | 40.3% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 42.6% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 23.2% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | 49.6% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 29.7% | +6.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Verdy 35.9 / Kawasaki Frontale 41.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.