Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kashima Antlers
J1 League, Japan · 2026-08-07 · 12:25 CET
WWLDW
WWWLLThe score model made a Kashima Antlers win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 3:4 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Yokohama F. Marinos 1.04 – 1.54 Kashima Antlers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yokohama F. Marinos win | 27.4% | 25.0% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.2% | 28.0% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Kashima Antlers win | 50.4% | 46.9% | +3.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.7% | 45.8% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.0% | 25.9% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | 50.8% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 31.6% | +1.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Yokohama F. Marinos 42.3 / Kashima Antlers 40.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.