Perugia vs Pineto
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-09-06 · 21:00 CET
LWWLW
LLWDWThe score model made a Perugia win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Perugia 1.24 – 0.96 Pineto.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perugia win | 41.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Pineto win | 27.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Perugia 42.6 / Pineto 42.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Perugia vs Pineto in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.