Livorno vs Torres
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-08-24 · 20:30 CET
LWWDW
DLLWLThe score model made a Torres win the most likely outcome at 36%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Livorno 1.21 – 1.24 Torres.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livorno win | 34.7% | 42.4% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.2% | 30.6% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Torres win | 36.1% | 27.0% | +9.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | 40.9% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.3% | 21.9% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 47.3% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.0% | 28.4% | +4.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Livorno 22.8 / Torres 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.