Sambenedettese vs Forli
Serie C - Group B, Italy · 2026-08-23 · 21:00 CET
WWDLL
WDDWLThe score model made a Sambenedettese win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sambenedettese 1.16 – 0.94 Forli.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sambenedettese win | 39.8% | 38.2% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.6% | 30.5% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Forli win | 28.5% | 31.3% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.9% | 40.0% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.0% | 21.2% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.6% | 47.3% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.9% | 27.9% | -4.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sambenedettese 22.9 / Forli 23.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.