Giana Erminio vs Pro Vercelli
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-09-26 · 14:30 CET
DDWWL
DWLLWThe score model made a Giana Erminio win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Giana Erminio 1.37 – 0.86 Pro Vercelli.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giana Erminio win | 48.2% | 43.8% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.7% | 28.4% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Pro Vercelli win | 23.1% | 27.7% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.7% | 46.1% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.8% | 26.3% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.8% | 51.5% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.1% | 32.2% | -10.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Giana Erminio 45.6 / Pro Vercelli 48.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Giana Erminio vs Pro Vercelli in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.