Trento vs Pro Vercelli
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-09-21 · 20:30 CET
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DWLLWThe score model made a Trento win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Trento 1.64 – 0.84 Pro Vercelli.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trento win | 56.0% | 53.4% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 26.5% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Pro Vercelli win | 18.6% | 20.1% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 50.0% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | 29.9% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 51.1% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.8% | 36.0% | -15.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Trento 47.7 / Pro Vercelli 47.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Trento vs Pro Vercelli in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.