Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Lumezzane
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-09-21 · 20:30 CET
DLLLL
LWDLLThe score model made a Lumezzane win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dolomiti Bellunesi 1.10 – 1.30 Lumezzane.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolomiti Bellunesi win | 31.0% | 41.6% | -10.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.5% | 30.4% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Lumezzane win | 40.5% | 28.0% | +12.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.2% | 41.6% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.2% | 22.5% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | 48.5% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.6% | 28.4% | -0.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dolomiti Bellunesi 27.8 / Lumezzane 45 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Lumezzane in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.