Ospitaletto vs Cittadella
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-09-20 · 14:30 CET
WDWLL
WLWWLThe score model made an Ospitaletto win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ospitaletto 1.24 – 1.11 Cittadella.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ospitaletto win | 38.8% | 34.8% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.9% | 29.5% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Cittadella win | 32.4% | 35.7% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | 46.8% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% | 27.1% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 52.7% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.5% | 32.2% | -10.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ospitaletto 27.9 / Cittadella 27.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ospitaletto vs Cittadella in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.