Lecco vs Pergolettese
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-09-20 · 20:30 CET
DLDDW
DDDWWThe score model made a Lecco win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 32%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lecco 1.24 – 0.74 Pergolettese.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecco win | 47.6% | 44.0% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.6% | 29.1% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Pergolettese win | 21.7% | 26.8% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.8% | 42.9% | -11.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.9% | 23.4% | -9.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.6% | 48.6% | -11.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.2% | 30.3% | -0.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lecco 42 / Pergolettese 47.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lecco vs Pergolettese in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.