Alcione Milano vs Brescia
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-09-20 · 20:30 CET
DDDWL
DDWLWThe score model made a Brescia win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 20%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alcione Milano 0.65 – 0.90 Brescia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcione Milano win | 24.7% | 24.1% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 36.5% | 28.0% | +8.5% | ✗ |
| Brescia win | 38.8% | 47.9% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 46.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20.5% | 45.1% | -24.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 7.2% | 24.4% | -17.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 28.9% | 49.2% | -20.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 51.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 15.1% | 30.9% | -15.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alcione Milano 39.3 / Brescia 27.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Alcione Milano vs Brescia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.