Giana Erminio vs Trento
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-09-17 · 21:00 CET
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WDDWWThe score model made a Trento win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Giana Erminio 1.02 – 1.11 Trento.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giana Erminio win | 32.4% | 26.6% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.3% | 29.7% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Trento win | 37.4% | 43.7% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.8% | 43.0% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.7% | 23.6% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | 49.2% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.3% | 29.7% | -10.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Giana Erminio 44.4 / Trento 47 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Giana Erminio vs Trento in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.